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April 15, 2008
With apocalyptic news reports dominating the media, there's no doubt that in many parts of the UK, house prices are turning downwards, but the reports and data currently being released for Scotland continue to show a much more stable situation compared to the traditionally more volatile English housing market.
Overall, house prices in the UK are estimated to have dropped by 2.5 per cent over the last month, yet on an annual basis, Scotland's prices have still risen by 5.4 per cent, and in the twelve months to March 2008, this is the largest price growth anywhere in the United Kingdom. Even within Scotland, however, there is evidence of localised fluctuations; Edinburgh prices have risen further and faster than those in Glasgow, which means the east of the country is more exposed to price corrections, whereas the west of Scotland has generally remained more affordable and may therefore escape the worst of the downturn.
Commenting on the current situation, the RICS Scotland's director Graeme Hartley had this to say: "We haven't seen Scotland's house prices take quite the same knock as they have in England. We still have evidence through our own survey that we are bucking the national trend. This is in some way due to a more robust market and consumer confidence that we can ride this storm."
What does seem certain, from analysing the myriad data, is that the rapid growth of recent years will come to a stop, as it inevitably had to do. The number of people taking out a mortgage for a property purchase fell in March for the fourth month in a row according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, while the number of people buying their first home also fell to 18,000, its lowest level since the CML began collecting figures. This, however, is good news for residential landlords, as discussed on page INSERT LETTING ARTICLE PAGE NUMBER HERE INSERT LETTING ARTICLE PAGE NUMBER HERE of this paper.
Scotland's comparative immunity to the vagaries of the housing industry were neatly summed up by Crawford McCaughie, who holds the dual roles of being the Dunfermline Building Society's lending manager and the CML Scotland's chairman. "I speak to people in Glasgow, Edinburgh, all over Scotland, and people still want to buy and sell property. A lot of people want to get on to the ladder for the first time, and the buy-to-let sector is still strong. In England the slowdown has been bigger than in Scotland, where the market still appears to be relatively intact. People still want to get into the market, but lenders will be looking at the overall UK picture where property values have now fallen."
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