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nationwide: widespread improvement in house price trends
July 1, 2009
House prices across the UK rose by 1.1 per cent over the last three months, according to the latest quarterly survey from the Nationwide. The building society said that they were up by 0.9 per cent in June, the third rise in the last four months.
Overall, prices now are 11.7 per cent lower than they were a year ago, but that is a significant improvement on the 16.5 per cent fall recorded just three months ago.
In Scotland, prices remained virtually unchanged (up by 0.1 per cent) despite rises elsewhere. But prices north of the border have fallen by much less than other parts of the UK. In the first three months of this year, prices in Scotland were estimated to be 12.6 per cent lower than a year ago compared to the 16.5 per cent fall reported for the UK as a whole. The annual rate of change in Scotland improved from -12.6 per cent to -10.1 per cent.
Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: "The second quarter saw a significant improvement in house price trends across all UK regions. Each UK region saw a moderation in the annual pace of decline, and in some cases these improvements were quite substantial. In addition, eight out of thirteen regions saw an increase in prices between the first and second quarter of the year.
"On balance, the stabilisation of house prices is a welcome surprise that did not seem likely at the beginning of the year. However, there are still considerable headwinds facing the demand side and until we see a more robust recovery in house purchase activity, it is too early to be confident about a full-scale recovery of prices."
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist noted that the latest figures suggest that the bottom of the property market may have been reached: "Nationwide house price data provides further evidence that the residential property market appears to have found a floor, at least for the time being. Prices on the Nationwide index have now risen in three of the last four months and although the year-on year rate of change is still negative to the tune of 9.3 per cent, this is the least worst reading since July 2008.
