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more signs of price stability
June 26, 2009
More signs have emerged that property prices are stabilising. The Land Registry reported that prices fell 15.9 per cent in the 12 months to the end of May. That is somewhat better than the 16.2 per cent fall recorded for both April and March this year and a noticeable improvement on the 16.5 per cent fall recorded for the year to February.
The reduction in house price deflation reflects a gradual slow down in house price falls in recent months. Prices in England and Wales fell by 2.0 per cent in February, by 0.4 per cent in March, 0.3 per cent in April and 0.2 per cent in May.
The figures do not include Scotland and prices north of the border have been noticeably less volatile than elsewhere. Nevertheless, the property market here tends to replicate trends south of the border and so indications that prices are stabilising elsewhere in the UK are significant for understanding what is happening to house prices in Scotland.
The number of transactions continues to fall substantially. There were 106,000 sales in March 2007, 58,000 in the same year in 2008 and just 33,000 sales this March - the most recent month for which data is available. The fall in transactions may reflect, in part, difficulties obtaining mortgage finance, but it is also due to a reluctance among prospective sellers to advertise their home for sale in difficult market conditions. The continuing decline is new instructions to sell is gradually limiting choice for buyers and helping to support prices.
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS chief economist: "More evidence that the housing market is stabilising is visible in the latest figures from the Land Registry. Completed transactions have settled down at just over 30,000 per month, roughly a quarter of the long run average. If more timely buyer enquiries and mortgage approvals data is anything to go by, the actual level of completed sales is likely to climb towards 40,000 over the coming months".
