As the press report ever-darkening moods among experts and economists, the International Monetary Fund threw its hat into the ring late last week, reporting a sharp slowdown in the world economy, but stopping short of predicting a global recession. According to the latest IMF figures, world economic growth will drop from last year's level of nearly five per cent down to just over three and a half per cent next year. However, although the IMF believes America will experience a "mild recession" this year, there is only a one in four chance of a global recession when growth falls below 3 per cent around the world.

The UK is one European country, alongside Spain and Ireland, tipped for a slowdown, but even the struggling American market is expected to begin recovering from its current woes by next year, with growth of 0.6 per cent estimated by the IMF for 2009. "The greatest risk", say the monetary fund's experts, "comes from the still-unfolding events in financial markets, which could mutate into a full-blown credit crunch. Activity in the other advanced economies will be sluggish in both 2008 and 2009 in the face of trade and financial spill-overs."