Latest News

House prices in the west of Scotland slipped by another two per cent over the last year taking them back to levels they first reached in mid 2006 according to GSPC.  But the fall is half what is what just six months ago, suggesting that the market is gradually stabilising. The average selling price of a property in Strathclyde is now £136,000, almost £3,000 lower than it was in the summer of 2010. 

The latest GSPC property market report, based on an analysis of sales data by Professor Gwilym Pryce of the Urban Studies Department at Glasgow University, includes more transactions in the west of Scotland than any other index (with the exception of the Registers of Scotland).

Selling prices in Strathclyde slumped last winter, falling to a low of £128,000 in December 2010, but have recovered some ground from that low point, especially over the last three months.  The market has been characterised by a series of slumps and recoveries since the start of the credit crunch.  But these fluctuations seem to be gradually moderating in intensity (see Strathclyde House Price Inflation graph below) and should ultimately evolve into a period of relatively stable prices.

Average selling times, a key indicator of market conditions, remained high but broadly unchanged.  The average home in west central Scotland now takes175 days - over five months - to sell, although selling times will vary markedly in different locations.

Transaction numbers remain exceptionally low, hindered by a lack of mortgage lending, a reluctance among sellers to advertise their home for sale in what they perceive as a weak market and caution among buyers facing rising costs and uncertainty about employment.  There are already signs of a tightening in the supply of homes coming on to the market - a classic response to uncertain market conditions by sellers and a key driver of recent recoveries.  

Commenting on the latest results, Professor Pryce said: ‘The housing market recovery in the West of Scotland remains tentative with prices up by around 5.4 per cent on quarter one, but two per cent lower than this time last year. This jittery recovery is perhaps not surprising given the wider economic context and the uncertain housing market recovery is probably not helping-there is substantial evidence to suggest that house price trajectories can have a significant impact on economic outlook and consumption plans'. 

In the short term, GSPC Chairman, Michael Samuel, believes that current market conditions will prompt some sellers to suspend their plans, resulting in a growing shortage of supply which will ultimately help to support prices.  In the longer term, the backlog of prospective sellers who have put off a move will cap any rise in prices for some time to come:  "We know from very recent experience that the response of sellers to adverse market conditions is to sit tight and wait.  That will restrict supply which, in turn, will help to support prices.  We saw exactly that happen in the first half of 2010.  But there are a growing number of homeowners who have suspended plans to move.  A recovery will encourage this group to put their homes on the market, increasing supply and effectively capping prices.  This dynamic will continue until transaction numbers return to normal and there is no longer a backlog of frustrated sellers. That is why we think we could see a sustained period of relatively stable prices'.